The end of the conflict between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), if it becomes a lasting peace, would have major commercial and economic implications for the Great Lakes region and broader Central and East Africa. Here's a breakdown of the expected commercial impact:
Peace would allow key trade corridors—especially the Goma-Gisenyi axis—to function fully again. Informal and formal cross-border trade, which had slowed due to insecurity, would resume and potentially expand.
Both governments could invest in roads, customs infrastructure, and logistics hubs, making cross-border trade faster and more efficient. Towns and cities on both sides of the border, especially Goma and Gisenyi, would likely see a surge in small business activity and market linkages.
Rwanda and DRC are members of the East African Community (EAC) and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). A stable relationship would allow both countries to better capitalise on tariff-free regional trade. With peace, companies would be more willing to invest in regional supply chains, manufacturing, and value-added activities.
The DRC's vast mineral wealth—particularly in North and South Kivu—has been historically underexploited due to insecurity. Lasting peace could encourage multinational firms to expand exploration and processing projects. Regional stability typically improves perceptions of investment risk. Rwanda, which has marketed itself as a logistics and tech hub, could see also see a rise in investment tied to logistics, finance, and processing.
Peace would further allow more reliable access to cobalt, coltan, tin, gold, and other strategic minerals—critical for electronics and green technologies. Rwanda could deepen energy cooperation with the DRC, including joint hydroelectric projects on the Ruzizi River, or interconnection of power grids.
Stability would allow for the development of tourism circuits connecting national parks (e.g., Virunga in DRC and Volcanoes in Rwanda). And Rwandan services, especially in healthcare and education, could expand access to Congolese consumers near the border. Rwanda could increasingly serve as a logistical and financial hub for companies accessing the mineral-rich eastern DRC. Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania would benefit indirectly by routing goods through Rwanda into eastern DRC.
The end of the war could be a game-changer for commerce in the region. It could unlock economic potential long stifled by insecurity, increase trade volumes, attract new investment, and deepen regional economic integration. However, the actual impact will depend on how durable and inclusive the peace is—and whether both governments follow through on key reforms and infrastructure commitments.